India in the Global Security Landscape - SIPRI 2024-25 Insights India in ...
India in the Global Security Landscape
An Infographic Analysis of SIPRI's 2024-2025 Findings
Global Military Expenditure: A World Rearming
The world saw an unprecedented surge in military spending in 2024, reaching $2.718 trillion, the steepest rise since 1988. This section places India's defense expenditure within this global context and compares it with key regional players.
Top 5 Global Military Spenders (2024)
The top five nations accounted for 60% of total global military spending, with the US and China alone comprising nearly half. India maintained its 5th position.
India's Expenditure Snapshot (2024)
India's spending reflects its sustained commitment to military modernization amidst regional complexities, driven by tensions with China and Pakistan.
Regional Spending Comparison (2024)
China's military expenditure is nearly four times that of India, marking its 30th consecutive year of increase. Pakistan's spending saw a slight decrease.
International Arms Transfers: India's Import Profile
India remains a major player in the global arms market. This section examines its position as an importer and the evolving dynamics of its key supplier relationships, reflecting strategic diversification.
Top 5 Arms Importers (2020-24)
India was the world's second-largest arms importer, highlighting its continued reliance on foreign technology for military modernization.
India's Global Import Share (2020-24)
India accounted for 8.3% of total global arms imports in 2020-24. While still high, this represents a 9.3% decrease compared to 2015-19.
India's Key Arms Suppliers (2020-24)
Russia's share of India's imports dropped to 36%, while France became the second-largest supplier (33%), indicating significant diversification.
Notable Procurements & Diversification
India's acquisitions include S-400 systems from Russia, Rafale aircraft and Scorpene submarines from France, and P-8I aircraft & MQ-9B UAVs from the US. This diversification aims to reduce dependence on single sources and access advanced technology.
This strategy is crucial for maintaining operational readiness and supply chain resilience, especially given geopolitical shifts and the need for cutting-edge capabilities to counter regional threats.
India's Nuclear Posture: Modernization & Strategic Realignments
India continues to modernize its nuclear forces, emphasizing a credible minimum deterrent. This section outlines its estimated arsenal and the development of its nuclear triad, with a growing focus on deterring China.
SIPRI notes a slight expansion in India's arsenal in 2023.
Maturing Nuclear Triad
India is enhancing its triad of delivery systems for a robust second-strike capability:
✈️ Aircraft
Mirage 2000H, Jaguar (aging), potential Rafale adaptation.
🚀 Land-based Ballistic Missiles
Prithvi-II, Agni series (Agni-I to Agni-V). Agni-V tested with MIRV technology ("Mission Divyastra") in March 2024, a significant capability boost.
🚢 Sea-based Ballistic Missiles
INS Arihant & INS Arighat (SSBNs) operational. K-15 SLBM deployed; longer-range K-4 SLBM advancing for enhanced deterrence against China.
Modernization focuses on longer-range systems (Agni-V, K-4), improved survivability (canisterization), and technological sophistication (MIRV).
'Make in India' & Defence Self-Reliance: Progress and Challenges
The 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' initiative aims to boost indigenous defense production. While progress is visible in production value and exports, significant reliance on imports for critical technologies persists.
Domestic Defence Production Value
Reached ~₹1.27 lakh crore ($15.2B) in FY 2023-24.
Defence Export Value
Record ₹21,080 crore ($2.5B) in FY 2023-24.
Foreign Origin in Procurement (2016-20)
84% of India's military procurement by volume was of foreign origin, with only 16% from indigenous design.
Self-Reliance: SIPRI Indo-Pacific Ranking (Oct 2022)
India ranked 4th, behind China, Japan, and S. Korea. Key challenges include technological gaps in advanced systems (engines, sensors) and R&D limitations.
Geopolitical Context & Overarching Security Trends
India navigates a volatile global environment marked by rising militarization and eroding trust, alongside complex regional dynamics involving China and Pakistan.
Key Global Security Trends
- 📈 Pronounced militarization & record spending.
- 🌍 Deepening geopolitical divides & eroding trust.
- 💣 Deteriorating nuclear diplomacy, increased role of nuclear weapons.
- 🛡️ Multilateral peace operations under severe pressure.
India's Strategic Response
India employs a multi-pronged approach:
This balancing act addresses threats from China & Pakistan and aims for strategic autonomy amidst weakening global peace mechanisms.
Conclusion: India's Strategic Path
SIPRI's findings highlight India at a critical juncture, navigating a complex global security landscape. While pursuing military modernization and strategic partnerships, India faces the persistent "Capability-Affordability-Indigenization" trilemma. The path to true strategic autonomy is long, requiring sustained efforts in bridging technological gaps and strengthening the domestic defense industry.
Key Focus Areas Ahead:
- 🎯 Continued capability development (conventional & nuclear).
- 🤝 Deepening strategic partnerships for technology and balance.
- 🇮🇳 Accelerating indigenization reforms and private sector role.
- 💡 Investing in future military technologies (AI, cyber, space).
- 🌏 Proactive regional engagement for stability.
India's success will depend on pragmatically managing dependencies while striving for self-reliance in an increasingly contested world.
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